Volver al Blog
Understanding odds helps you make informed decisions about which raffles to enter and how many tickets to buy.
In a fair raffle:
Your odds = Your tickets / Total tickets
If a raffle has 100 tickets and you buy 1:
• Your chance of winning = 1/100 = 1%
• Chance of NOT winning = 99/100 = 99%
Expected Value (EV) tells you the average outcome over many attempts.
EV = (Win probability × Prize)• Ticket cost
#
Raffle details:
• Prize: 1 ETH (~$2,000)
• Tickets: 100
• Ticket price: $20
• Your tickets: 1
EV = (1/100 × $2,000)• $20
EV = $20• $20 = $0
This is a "fair" raffle where EV = 0.
#
If the prize is undervalued or ticket price is low:
• EV > 0 = favorable odds
• Long-term, you'd profit on average
#
If tickets are expensive relative to prize:
• EV < 0 = unfavorable odds
• The house has an edge
#
Pure EV doesn't account for:
• The entertainment value
• Life-changing potential of big wins
• Risk tolerance
Buying more tickets increases your odds:
| Tickets Bought | Odds (100 total) |
|----------------|------------------|
| 1 | 1% |
| 5 | 5% |
| 10 | 10% |
| 20 | 20% |
But each ticket has the same EV, so buying more doesn't change your expected return per dollar spent.
#
• Prize: 0.1 BTC (~$5,000)
• Tickets: 200
• Price: $25
Odds per ticket: 1/200 = 0.5%
EV: (0.005 × $5,000)• $25 = $0
#
• Prize: 0.05 BTC (~$2,500)
• Tickets: 50
• Price: $50
Odds per ticket: 1/50 = 2%
EV: (0.02 × $2,500)• $50 = $0
Both have the same EV, but different risk profiles.
#
Choose raffles with:
• More tickets (lower individual odds)
• Lower ticket prices
• More frequent draws
This spreads your entries and reduces variance.
#
Choose raffles with:
• Fewer tickets (higher individual odds)
• Larger prizes
• Less frequent but bigger wins
This concentrates your chances for bigger potential wins.
A common mistake:
"I haven't won in 10 raffles, so I'm due for a win."
Reality: Each raffle is independent. Previous results don't affect future odds. The probability resets every draw.
#
Set a monthly entertainment budget and stick to it:
• Decide total spend first
• Choose raffles that fit your budget
• Never chase losses
#
Track your entries:
• Raffles entered
• Tickets bought
• Wins and losses
• Running total
This helps you stay within budget and assess your experience.
#
Mathematical guidelines:
• Don't exceed 1-2% of your crypto portfolio per raffle
• Diversify across multiple draws
• Adjust based on prize size and your goals
Remember: raffles are entertainment with potential upside. The excitement of participation has value beyond pure mathematics. Play responsibly and enjoy the experience!
4 min
Understanding Crypto Raffle Odds: A Mathematical Guide
12 de enero de 2026 31 visitas
Compartir:
The Math Behind Your Chances
Understanding odds helps you make informed decisions about which raffles to enter and how many tickets to buy.
Basic Probability
In a fair raffle:
Your odds = Your tickets / Total tickets
If a raffle has 100 tickets and you buy 1:
Calculating Expected Value
Expected Value (EV) tells you the average outcome over many attempts.
EV = (Win probability × Prize)
#
Example Calculation
Raffle details:
EV = (1/100 × $2,000)
EV = $20
This is a "fair" raffle where EV = 0.
Why EV Matters
#
Positive EV
If the prize is undervalued or ticket price is low:
#
Negative EV
If tickets are expensive relative to prize:
#
Real-World Considerations
Pure EV doesn't account for:
Multiple Ticket Strategy
Buying more tickets increases your odds:
| Tickets Bought | Odds (100 total) |
|----------------|------------------|
| 1 | 1% |
| 5 | 5% |
| 10 | 10% |
| 20 | 20% |
But each ticket has the same EV, so buying more doesn't change your expected return per dollar spent.
Comparing Different Raffles
#
Raffle A
Odds per ticket: 1/200 = 0.5%
EV: (0.005 × $5,000)
#
Raffle B
Odds per ticket: 1/50 = 2%
EV: (0.02 × $2,500)
Both have the same EV, but different risk profiles.
Risk Preferences
#
Low Risk Tolerance
Choose raffles with:
This spreads your entries and reduces variance.
#
High Risk Tolerance
Choose raffles with:
This concentrates your chances for bigger potential wins.
The Gambler's Fallacy
A common mistake:
"I haven't won in 10 raffles, so I'm due for a win."
Reality: Each raffle is independent. Previous results don't affect future odds. The probability resets every draw.
Practical Tips
#
Budget Allocation
Set a monthly entertainment budget and stick to it:
#
Record Keeping
Track your entries:
This helps you stay within budget and assess your experience.
#
Optimal Entry Size
Mathematical guidelines:
The Entertainment Factor
Remember: raffles are entertainment with potential upside. The excitement of participation has value beyond pure mathematics. Play responsibly and enjoy the experience!